Most people don’t realize this, but the belief-to-reality ratio in quantum computing is completely upside down.
After four decades of work and hundreds of billions spent, we still do not have a single fault-tolerant quantum computer. Yet if you look around the ecosystem, about 80 to 90 percent of people are still believers. Maybe 5 to 10 percent are cautious skeptics. And roughly 1 percent are true non-believers who actually understand the physics well enough to see the dead ends coming.
Quantum systems collapse faster than they compute, and classical overhead grows faster than any claimed quantum advantage. That’s the bottleneck no roadmap, no marketing, and no optimism has ever solved.
The believers are not stupid. They are just trapped in three patterns.
- First, sunk cost. When so much money, reputation, and career prestige is tied to a dream, no one wants to be the first to say it failed.
- Second, optimism. People love the story that relentless effort will eventually bend nature to our will. Sometimes it does. Sometimes nature says no.
- Third, jargon. Quantum mechanics is weird enough that anything wrapped in the right vocabulary can sound plausible. Marketing teams take advantage of that.
I am on the other side for a simple reason. I do not care about narratives. I only care about physics and engineering. If there were a real path to scalable, fault-tolerant quantum computing, I would have spotted it, worked on it, and solved it already. There is no path. That is why the field relies on belief instead of reproducible results.
Quantum computing runs on hype, hope, and heroic storytelling.
My work runs on physics.
That is the real divide.
Read my other post to see why I don’t believe in quantum computing.
https://lnkd.in/ghQZvYfa
Article link: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alan-shields-56963035a_the-quantum-mirage-most-people-dont-realize-activity-7394590236082814977-019u?
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