Analyzing the Rise of AI: Insights from RAND

Posted by timmreardon on 04/29/2024
Posted in: Uncategorized.

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Conceptual represenatation of the effects of artificial intelligence, image by Florence Lo/Reuters; design by Haley Okuley/RAND

Image by Florence Lo/Reuters; design by Haley Okuley/RAND

Artificial intelligence—from machine learning that’s already widely used today to the possible artificial general intelligence of the future—has the power to transform the way we live, work, and interact.

AI tools are evolving quickly, and decisionmakers are grappling with how to maximize the potential benefits, minimize the short- and long-term risks, and plan for an uncertain future.

RAND’s rigorous and independent research can help. Our experts have been studying a wide range of questions about the effects and uses of AI: Which jobs are likely to be most affected? How might AI tools be used to support military decisionmaking? What is required to ensure that algorithms don’t worsen inequity?

Answers to these and other important questions can help leaders and policymakers better understand AI and make informed decisions about how to balance promoting innovation while safeguarding against any dangers.

FEATURED INSIGHTS

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Military, Defense, and National Security

  • REPORTDoes AI Increase the Operational Risk of Biological Attacks?When researchers role-playing as malign nonstate actors were assigned to realistic scenarios and tasked with planning a biological attack, there was no statistically significant difference in the viability of plans generated with or without the assistance of the current generation of large language models.Jan 25, 2024

Health and Well-Being

Misinformation, Disinformation, and Media Literacy

  • COMMENTARYU.S. Adversaries Can Use Generative AI for Social Media ManipulationUsing generative artificial intelligence technology, U.S. adversaries can manufacture fake social media accounts that seem real. These accounts can be used to advance narratives that serve the interests of those governments and pose a direct challenge to democracies. U.S. government, technology, and policy communities should act fast to counter this threat.Sep 7, 2023

Jobs, Workers, and the Economy 

  • VISUALIZATIONRage Against the Machine? How AI Could Affect the Future of WorkUnderstanding how technology and artificial intelligence have—and have not—affected jobs in the past can provide insights on the future of the American workforce. What is the relationship between occupational exposure and technologies, wages, and employment related to artificial intelligence?Oct 11, 2023

Technology Governance and Regulation

  • TESTIMONYAdvancing Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence The United States can make safety a differentiator for the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, just as it did for the early aviation, automotive, and pharmaceutical industries. Government involvement in safety standards could build consumer trust in AI that strengthens the U.S. position as a market leader. Jun 22, 2023

RAND Research That Uses AI

Beyond studying the nexus of AI and public policy, RAND experts regularly use AI in their research—often in novel ways. Here’s just a small sample of RAND studies that put AI to work:

Featured Experts

Scores of RAND researchers are studying AI from countless angles, providing key insights that can inform the use and regulation of AI tools now and in the future.

  • I don’t think AI poses an irreversible harm to humanity. I think it can worsen our lives. I think it can have long-lasting harm. But I think it’s ultimately something that we can recover from. Jonathan W. WelburnSenior ResearcherSource: rand.org
  • From our recent research, it appears that extremist groups have been testing AI tools, including chatbots, but there seems to be little evidence of large-scale coordinated efforts in this space. However, chatbots are likely to present a risk, as they are capable of recognising and exploiting emotional vulnerabilities and can encourage violent behaviours.Pauline PailléSenior AnalystSource: Euronews
  • I don’t think AI is going to breed a population of people who can’t think for themselves. I actually think there’s a lot of promise in what AI can do to facilitate teaching, to facilitate critical thinking, and to teach in ways that previously we had been unable to teach.Christopher Joseph DossPolicy ResearcherSource: Education Week

See all RAND AI experts

See all RAND AI content

Article link: https://www.rand.org/latest/artificial-intelligence.html?